Fifty-seven percent of the prediction models were presented and e

Fifty-seven percent of the prediction models were presented and evaluated as simplified scoring systems. Sixteen percent of articles failed to report the number of outcome events in the

validation datasets. Fifty-four percent of studies made no explicit mention of missing data. Sixty-seven percent did not report evaluating model calibration whilst most studies evaluated model discrimination. It was often unclear whether the reported PND-1186 performance measures were for the full regression model or for the simplified models.

Conclusions: The vast majority of studies describing some form of external validation of a multivariable prediction model were poorly reported with key details frequently not presented. The validation studies were characterised by poor design, inappropriate handling and acknowledgement of missing data and one of the most key performance measures of prediction models i.e.

calibration often omitted from the publication. It may therefore not be surprising that an overwhelming majority of developed prediction models are not used in practice, when there is a dearth of well-conducted and clearly reported (external validation) studies describing their performance on independent participant data.”
“OBJECTIVES: To estimate the probability of survival and to evaluate risk factors for death in a cohort of persons living with human immunodeficiency virus (PLHIV) Napabucasin research buy who had started tuberculosis (TB) treatment. METHODS: A prospective cohort study was conducted between June 2007 and December 2009 with HIV-infected patients who had started anti-tuberculosis CH5424802 mw treatment in the State of

Pernambuco, Brazil. Survival data were analysed using the Kaplan-Meier estimator, the log-rank test and the Cox model. Hazard ratios and their respective 95%CIs were estimated.

RESULTS: Of a cohort of 2310 HIV-positive individuals, 333 patients who had commenced treatment for TB were analysed. The mortality rate was 5.25 per 10 000 person-years (95%CI 4.15-6.63). The probability of survival at 30 months was 74%. Risk factors for death in the study population were being female, age >= 30 years, having anaemia, not using highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART) during treatment for TB and disseminated TB. Protective factors for death were a CD4 lymphocyte count >200 cells/mm(3) and treatment for TB having started in an out-patient clinic.

CONCLUSIONS: The use of HAART can prevent deaths among HIV-TB patients, corroborating the efficacy of starting HAART early in individuals with TB.”
“Although gene-environment interactions are known to significantly influence psychopathology related disease states, only few animal models cover both the genetic background and environmental manipulations.

Comments are closed.